Today I read George Will’s column on Chron.com. I just had to respond. I’ve recycled my comment here on this blog…
Let me first say that I’m busy enough with my life that I don’t take the time to research the science behind this debate enough to know FOR SURE who is right. So I’m left to choose a course of (in)action for myself based on the assertions of others.
Who am I to believe?
Do I trust the “eco-pessimists”?
or…
Do I trust the “eco-optimists”?
I so badly want the optimists to be right. If they are, then I can continue to live my life largely as I have been doing. No need to be distracted by a change in lifestyle and priorities.
I want the pessimists to be wrong. Their assertions mean I must embrace uncomfortable lifestyle changes.
Alas… this is a good reason to distrust other optimists. As humans, we defend our current position and invested interests. Companies do this too. Consider the tobacco companies and their efforts to stifle the truth about the effects of smoking. Similarly, there is most surely alot of corporate capital dedicated to “protecting” corporate income streams from the spectre of global warming.
At the same time, what interest do the pessimists have in being right? I don’t see big payoffs. They might enjoy some psychological satisfaction in being righteous, but I believe that motive is shared by both sides, negating any weighting to or fro. I doubt there’s a lot of corporate power available to defend the pessimists side – there is no long history of corporate profits and therefore a relatively small capital pool to fund propaganda.
Who sits in the pessimist camp? It seems to include the world’s most respected scientists. As I look around my wide social network, the pessimists tend to be the smartest ones, or the ones that are able to commit a lot of time to consuming information on the subject. The figurehead was Al Gore, whose only major flaws seemed to be his weight, speaking ability, and political savvy.
Who sits in the optimist camp? They seem to be rare among the intelligencia. For awhile there, the figureheads were Dick Cheney and George W Bush. I certainly lost any faith in their good judgement.
So…
By knowing a little about human/corporate nature, and Without knowing a thing about science, there is very good reason to doubt the optimists.
But what about outcomes?
If we all follow the eco-pessimists (zero-impact practices?), then…
If they’re right, we save ourselves from doom.
If they`re wrong, my great-grandchildren get to live an Eden of sorts. Lots of trees, clean water, clean air and other utopian features. That sounds pretty good!
If we all follow the eco-optimists, then…
If they`re right, we get status quo. Maybe a bit boring, but good for my comforts!
If they`re wrong, then we are doomed.
Seems like we`re better to throw in with the eco-pessimists, in spite of the short term discomforts.
Anyone disagree with my logic here? If so, please explain!